By Major General Suresh Chandra Mohanty

The thirteenth round of military commander’s level talks between India and China brought to the fore the wide disparity in the perception and expectations of both sides as to the conditions that would bring back a semblance of peace and tranquility along the LAC, considering the statements issued by both sides after the talks.  It would in any case have been naive to expect a softening of position by the PLA, especially when it was under no compulsion (as they were when India was in occupation of Kailash Range) to withdraw from the now consolidated areas of DepsangPlains, Hot Spring (PP 15) and Demchok. Given the planned but precarious domestic situation of debt repayment crisis, unprecedented floods, economic downturn due to crackdown on real estate, tech giants, gaming industries and tutoring companies, a concession at this point of time even if to buy peace at the LAC was far from Chinese priority. Looking back at the past attempts to resolve the boundary dispute, the two sides have had eight rounds of senior foreign diplomat level talks between 1981 and 1987,15 rounds of Joint Working Group (JWG) meetings between 1988, when in a path breaking initiative Mr Rajiv Gandhi, then Prime Minister of India visited China, and 2002 and another 22 rounds of talks between the Special Representative since 2003 overlapping with 20 rounds of Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) talks since 2012has not resulted in even an agreed position on each other’s claimlines. The mutual distrust has reached alarming levels post Galwan clash even to recognize the pre-April 2020 status quo given the massive buildup of troops on both sides.Hence to expect a break through after 13 rounds of talks over a much smaller period of 17 months would have been absurd.  The Chief of Indian Army mentioned that if the Chinese Military continues with its large-scale deployment in Eastern Ladakh region, the Indian Army too will maintain its strength on its side, as good as what the PLA has done, indicating that the current deployment of troops all along the LAC will continue to remain in position for as long as is required.  The Eastern Army Commander responsible for Indo- Tibet border in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh in a recent interaction with journalists mentioned that there has been substantial improvement of own defensive posture along the LAC including infrastructure, roads and bridges, habitat, augmentation of fire power resources in terms of induction of M777 and Bofors medium guns, enhancement of surveillance capability, helipads and logistic support areas.  He also reiterated that while there has been increase in the troop density in the depth areas and exercises in the traditional areas by PLA, own troops are fully prepared for any eventuality and a no of contingencies have been worked out and rehearsed.
The Bhutan – China memorandum of understanding of 14 Oct 21 talks of a three-step road map for settlement of China – Bhutan boundary dispute.  The move needs to be seen in the context of Chinese push for a ‘package proposal’ which would result in giving up its claim over 495 km in Northern Bhutan in exchange for 89 Sq km of strategically important Doklam Plateau including Jampheri Ridge in the West. As a sequel to the 2017 Doklam standoff with India that forced the Chinese to back off from road construction up to their claim lines, this will not only ameliorate Chinese vulnerability in the Chumbi Valley but will also pose anominous threat to strategic Siliguri Corridor.  The move is a clear indication of Chinese intimidation of Bhutan with its encroachment into Northern Bhutan and claim over Sakteng wildlife sanctuary to secure claims in the East.  Further, having recognized Sikkim as part of India in 2003, the fresh standoff at Nakula only seeks to expand the areas of dispute.
The Chinese expansionist agenda in the South China Sea took shape in 2013 when it started building artificial islands through extensive reclamation and militarizing them with runways, missile emplacements, air defence guns, surveillance radars and claiming exclusive economic zones around these Islands and disregarding Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in favour of Philippines in clear violation of UNCLOS to which China is a signatory. The too little and too late response of the US was reflected by rebalancing to the Asia Pacific under the Obama administration. Ever since, the Chinese unrelenting maritime aggression is reflected through new coast guard laws, maritime militias in Whitsun Reef, fishing in Nachuna Islands and adoption of new maritime law within what it perceives as its maritime territory. India which has substantial maritime trade passing through these waters, has also suffered with respect to its oil exploration off the coast of Vietnam. 
On the economic front, despite the symbolic banning of over 200 Chinese apps (59 now permanently banned) in India post Galwan in the pretext of being prejudicial to national sovereignty, integrity and security and leaving out ZTE and Huawei from 5G trials, India’s trade deficit in the first nine months of current financial year has grown by 49% to $90bn.  The recent Chinese non-tariff barriers over marine produce, IT and pharma products by introducing new scrutiny protocols is only driving up Indian traders’ anxiety.  Despite the emphasis on Atmanirbhar Bharat, the economic decoupling is not going to be easy.
Over the last several months, the state of preparedness on own side of LAC against any further misadventure by the PLA have been substantially strengthened.  However, Military posturing and deterrence cannot be seen in isolation and must form the cornerstone of a holistic strategic response encompassing multiple domains in conjunction with likeminded and similarly threatened countries. The other components of national power; namely diplomatic, economic and informational domains must play a role.  The Chinese do have numerous internal fault lines;whether it is human rights violation in Xinjiang Autonomous Region,Sinicization of Tibetan Buddhism, predatory activities in the Taiwan strait, suppression of democracy in Hong Kong, inner magnolia, territorial aggression into Nepal between boundary Pillar No 4 to 13 as discovered recently by a constituted commission, claim over Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary in Northern Bhutan, not to talk of sub optimal vaccine export to Indonesia, Thailand and Malayasia. China has so far not been able to integrate its regions of Tibet, Xinjiang, inner Mangolia and Hongkong. The latest report of contaminated fertilizers exported to Sri Lanka and Chinese blacklisting Peoples bank of Sri Lanka, only adds to the Chinese reputational woos. 
Much against the Chinese claim of peaceful liberation of Tibet, after the Seventeen Point Agreement was signed under duressagainst the wishes of His Holiness the fourteenth Dalai Lama on 23 May 1951, it has systematically destroyed the century old Tibetan Buddhism through sinicization of their religious belief by State enforced religious practices, intrusive surveillance, imposition of communist party compliant monks, abduction and confinement of eleventh Pachen Lama, compulsory conversation in mandarin and “implement the Party’s military ideology in the new era” to build a new socialist modern Tibet.  It has even intimidated young Tibetan Monks to treat XiJinping as their spiritual leader during the latter’s visit to Nyingchi in jun 21.  The Tibetan Govt in Exile in Dharamshala, to which elections were held in April 21 and US Tibet Policy and Support Act passed by the US Senate in Dec 2020must be leveraged by India to calibrate its Tibet Policy to reinforce what MsSushmaSwaraj, the former Foreign Minister told Mr Wang Yi, in 2014, “While Indian Govt supports Beijing’s ‘One China’ policy, it would also expect China to adopt a ‘One India’ policy. In this context, the statement of GyangbungRimpoche, Abbot of Tawang Monastery on 24 Oct with respect to Chinese having no right to choose the next Dalai Lama and the visit of the Vice President of India MrVenkaiah Naidu to Itanagar and the Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh to Yangtse; the latest site of faceoff between PLA and Indian Army personnel gains significance as part of strategic signalling.
On 21 Oct, 43 countries at the UN have criticized China over human rights situation in Xinjiang with reports of widespread torture, cruel and inhuman treatment of millions of minorities in concentration camps and demanded access by independent observers (India is not one of them).  Needle of suspicion on the origin of Corona virus and Chinese obfuscation further substantiates its complicity in delaying information to the rest of the world. On the demographic front, despite the transition from one child policy in the 80s to two child policy in 2016 and three child policy in Aug 21, the declining birthrate will seriously affect growth notwithstanding technology transition and enhancement of retirement age. The internal turbulence as a result of crackdown on tech firms, gaming companies, edtech and real-estate giants in the name of “common prosperity”and “spiritual opium” have led to alienation of the common citizens and unmanageable balance of payment crisis.
India needs to exploit its widely recognized diplomatic prowess to exert multi domain pressure on China.  With over 200 people of Indian origin occupying leadership position in 15 countries including the latest induction of Anita Anand as the Defence Minister of Canada, the reach of Indian diplomacy is far and wide as demonstrated by tipping UK in the race for a member of ICJ in 2017. 16 percent of Global Management degree holders are from India.  Our relations with China ought to transit from one of appeasement and strategic hesitancy to one of strategic assertiveness.  The Chinese writings in 2013, however imaginary, fictitious and fanciful it might be, indicated its propensity to fight six wars in the ensuing 50 years and winning them all starting with Taiwan in 2020 – 25, India ( South Tibet) in 2035-40 and ending one with Russia in 2050 – 60, timelines. India needs to act now and act decisively as China only respects strength. (The Writtr is AVSM)

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Kenter Joya Riba

(Managing Editor)
      She is a graduate in Science with post graduation in Sociology from University of Pune. She has been in the media industry for nearly a decade. Before turning to print business, she has been associated with radio and television.
Email: kenterjoyaz@easternsentinel.in / editoreasternsentinel@gmail.com
Phone: 0360-2212313

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