8th Jan 2020 11:01:PM Editorials
Eastern Sentinel Arunachal News

Countless number of depressing data and figures that came at regular intervals all throughout 2019 had already spelt out the reality that Indian economy is in dire straits and there hadn’t been a single hint even that would suggest that a revival is on cards. 2020 too, it seems, will have little cheers to offer with the first warning arriving on Tuesday from none other than government’s Central Statistics Office (CSO) which has predicted that national economy is expected to grow by 5 % this financial year which will be slowest since 2008-09 when growth nose-dived to 3.1 % due to the cataclysmic global financial crisis then. But now, there is no such crisis that alone could attribute to the current national economic woes and hand-picking the current global slump as a potential contributor wouldn’t be fair enough either as it hadn’t reached that stage which can be called precarious. Hence, there seems no option left but to recall the ‘pointers’ that had been conveyed by several distinguished economists, both from and outside the country, but stubbornly refused altogether. And the essence of these had been, it’s solely an internal crisis resulting out of ‘self-inflicted wounds’. Debates will circle around this issue, but, arrival of the CSO prediction has perhaps closed one further door for the ‘escapists’ from the reality for sure.
Technically speaking, the data is an advance estimate of what might be in store for the immediate months and had been prepared based on actual data of last seven to eight months gathered from several benchmark indicators like index of industrial production, financial performance of listed companies, bank deposit and credit trends, railway passenger and freight earnings, cargo handled at airports and ports, commercial vehicles sales, revenue collections etc. It’s also necessary to recall that in January last year, CSO’s growth forecast was 7.2 %, which eventually had to be scaled down to 6.8 % in the provisional estimate at May end. Now, what is alarming is that similar apprehensions have already started trickling in, which say that even this 5 % growth forecast is too optimistic and it may plummet down further. And there are obvious reasons for this. Slowdown is great in every sense and had engulfed almost every sector of the economy resulting in unabated loss of jobs with acutely affected being the manufacturing sector which is slowing to a 15-year low and construction where it is a six-year low.
The forecast, as if like a red alert has once again shown that entrapment of the economy is now almost total in a circle which is unthinkably vicious. All eyes will thus be on the annual budget with expectation if it can ‘discover’ any silver lining.

Kenter Joya Riba

(Managing Editor)
      She is a graduate in Science with post graduation in Sociology from University of Pune. She has been in the media industry for nearly a decade. Before turning to print business, she has been associated with radio and television.
Email: kenterjoyaz@easternsentinel.in / editoreasternsentinel@gmail.com
Phone: 0360-2212313

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