With a sharp fall in daily Covid cases across the country along with a decline of casualties to around 3000 for the past two days and weekly positivity rate dropping below 5% in nearly 350 districts of the national total of 718, a very important decision now to be taken by states is whether to start the process of unlocking or hold on for some more time. While the local factors will shape states’ decisions, from the point of view of the Indian economy in its entirety, a rational assertion can be that the country just can’t afford to continue with more lockdowns. The economy had been in a bad shape much before Covid pandemic and went worse after it- various data have already shown. However, the latest one that came from the National Statistical Office (NSO) and also those from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) contain such figures which will compel anyone even with a rough knowledge on matters relating to Indian economy to conclude that any further halt in economic activities will lead to an irreparable ruin.
Coming to NSO data, except for the flash of hope that India’s GDP grew by 1.6 % in Q4 (January-March) of 2020-21 FY, the rest is grim. During the entire length of 2020-21 FY, in real terms the GDP contracted by 7.3 %, the first to happen since 1979-80. However, efforts which aims at painting  the 1.6 % growth as a true silver lining are already visible. The fact of the matter is the growth did happen, but only during the stretch when there was no lockdown. Meanwhile, even the 7.3 % contraction has been interpreted as a ‘gain’ only since it is less than the figure predicted by the NSO February last (8% contraction). The last hope which is agriculture also slowed to 3.1 % in Q4, a slide from 4.5 % in Q3 (October-December).The sectors which generally generate employment opportunities all over the year such as mining and trade, tourism and hotels and transport sectors have not been able to free themselves from the negative territory. The CMIE report is also packed with unsettling details- in just two months (April-May), a total of 2.27 crore people lost their jobs due to Covid 2.0 and accompanying lockdowns. And if a retrospective assessment is made in terms of erosion of households’ income, since the onset of the pandemic, it’s a mammoth 97%.
The only road left open for the country is to return to economic normalcy. For this, lockdowns need to be lifted first, followed by efforts to reach a stage when they will not be needed at all. Hope, the stakeholders understand the overwhelming need to vaccinate people fast.

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Kenter Joya Riba

(Managing Editor)
      She is a graduate in Science with post graduation in Sociology from University of Pune. She has been in the media industry for nearly a decade. Before turning to print business, she has been associated with radio and television.
Email: kenterjoyaz@easternsentinel.in / editoreasternsentinel@gmail.com
Phone: 0360-2212313

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