During the past twelve months or so hardly any report on the Indian economy, prepared by the governmental or private agencies had contained anything hopeful. Another one has arrived on Friday, this time from the NSO and it’s the story of a new ‘low’ which is the worst in last 11 years. Going by the theoretical aspects of the subject of economics, ups and downs in any economy are the accompanying features, but, the current trend of the national economy which is showing a dogged determination to dive only downwards and that too at a prolonged stretch is dumbfounding for all, including the economists and planners observing the slide with their analytical glasses. The million-dollar questions now are- where lies the actual problem and when will the ‘green shoots’, which so far had remained tall rhetorical claims only will actually appear to be felt by the masses? With no conclusive answers as yet, for a tax-paying and development-longing common citizen, there is little choice but to pray for an early recovery.

The most eye-catching elements of the NSO data will be the 11-year low in the rate of economic growth which is 4.2% for the full 2019-20 fiscal, and of it, the Jan-March quarter touching 3.1%. But, going beyond these depressing figures, it must be taken into knowledge that the data hardly reflect the true pains being inflicted on the national economy and directly felt by populace now standing on the last day of May, since, technically, it’s only the last week of March having the full-fledged lockdown which has been included in the report. Logically then, after inclusion of the April & May picture which had seen full disruption of all economic activities due to coronavirus-triggered lockdown, it can be safely argued that the figures coming in the next edition of the release will be further bleak.

The 'deluge'  doesn’t end here. On Friday itself, two more unsettling sets of data have arrived. Commerce & Industry Ministry data show that eight core infrastructure sectors namely coal, cement, steel, natural gas, refineries etc. nose-dived by a record 38.1 % in April. The quantum of this impact can easily be understood if it is taken into account that these core sectors form approximately 40 % of the annual Index of Industrial Production. Meanwhile, the data released by the Controller General of Accounts show that due to a 9.4% shortfall in revenue receipt, fiscal deficit has jumped to 4.6%, quite higher than the 3.8% as projected in the annual budget presented in February 1 last.

With a sea of discomforting figures and no solutions in sight, nothing doing but to desire that the remedies prescribed so far and those in the pipeline clicks. But, without doubt, days ahead will be increasingly tougher.