The current week which just ended had been quite disheartening for those expecting some positive news about revival of the Indian economy. IMF’s new managing director’s warning that global economic slowdown is going to have a more pronounced impact in India came on Wednesday and was followed by world’s premier rating agency Moody’s equally gloomy growth forecast the very next day. As if these ‘bombardments’ were not enough, on Friday, central government’s National Statistical Office(NSO) released a further set of data for the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) that will only act as supplement to a gradually cementing belief that the economy is not going to be revived so soon. With gloominess getting prolonged despite a normal monsoon, it is not sure when will the glimmer of hope ultimately usher.
Not only this particular week, during the last six months or so, if all figures and charts concerning the nation’s economy which dreams of becoming a 5 trillion dollar one within six years from now are looked back, there were hardly any positivity that could revive the sunken spirits. As quarterly results surfaced, it became clear that the slump will bring into its net further newer sectors and by the approaching mid-October it almost omnipresent now. NSO data, as an ample corroboration of the on-going slowdown reveals that out of 23 categories of industries in manufacturing sector many of which fall in the core group,15 have displayed negative growth in August, led by motor vehicles and machinery & equipment. Electricity generation fell by 0.9 per cent against an expansion of 7.6 per cent in the year-ago month while growth in mining sector was at a meagre 0.1 per cent. To sum up the essence from a myriad of figures, factory output growth has entered the negative zone now which has been -1.1 per cent in August and is officially the lowest in last 81 months. Meanwhile, on Friday itself, auto industry body SIAM has given another set of gloomy figures which show that passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles and two-wheelers have all dropped by considerable percentages. Keeping aside the array of data, a visit to any business entity right from the nearby grocery shop or to the shinning shopping plazas will reveal the consumer sentiment. Majority of them is unwilling to spend even in the midst of festive season simply because purchasing power has somehow been sucked off and there is a cautious approach with a growing tendency not to part away with money, since the immediate future is so uncertain.
Uncomfortable questions seeking answers to this ‘mysterious collapse’ of the economy are all-around and getting louder day by day. And as the going gets tougher, it’s time for some ‘soul searching’ too, besides keeping the hunt alive for a revival.