Even if it might take a few more weeks for the election mood to develop thoroughly in Assam which is heading for assembly polls slated in April-May, there are strong indications that the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) is going to be a big issue. That the opposition headed by the Congress is going to make it a primary agenda in its poll campaign is apparent from Rahul Gandhi donning a traditional ‘gamosa’ with ‘No CAA’ written on it during last Sunday’s Sivasagar rally. Unlike the 2016 assembly elections when it was a smooth ride for the BJP and its alliance partners who together won 86 seats in the 126-member house, 2021 elections might see altered equations due to the CAA factor. Covid might have cut short the agitation against the contentious citizenship law in early 2020 in Assam which was the epicentre of protests in the Northeast then, it will be an undisputed factor this time which no political party can ignore.

Illegal immigration and the issue of citizenship have always been the conspicuous as well as sensitive factors in Assam politics since the seventies and in varying degrees have been inseparable issues in assembly polls. However, after enactment of the CAA in 2019 which grants Indian citizenship to non-Muslim communities who came from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan before 2015 in a most hassle-free manner, there is an overwhelming sentiment particularly among the Assamese-speaking populace that the old wound has been scratched for a further time. Discontent has been stoked by the fact that the CAA goes against the Assam Accord of 1986 where the cut-off date for granting citizenship to immigrants is 1971. Pushing back this date to 2014 as enumerated in the CAA has not gone down well with those vehemently opposing it and for the opposition it has come as a very good opportunity to reap electoral dividends. Unsurprisingly, assurance has come from Rahul Gandhi that his party will protect the Assam Accord in letter and spirit and will never implement the CAA if voted to power. It will be hard for the BJP or its partners to counter this since it’s a fact that the accord has been instrumental in bringing peace in the state after the stormy days of the 80s. While the anti-incumbency factor like in any other election will have a presence, the CAA in all probability will emerge as the single-most decisive element in Assam assembly polls as it has been the origin of mass dissatisfaction of a magnitude unparalleled in recent times.

It’s for the Congress and its allies to cash in on the opportunity by reaching out to the electorate through penetrating and persuasive campaigns.