By Major General Suresh Chandra Mohanty, AVSM

One year into the Israel - Hamas war, triggered by the horrific transborder attack by Hamas, resulting in deaths of over 1200 civilians and around 250 hostages;the situation in the Middle East is precariously poised.  The conflict has since escalated into Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and has the potential to engulf theentire region. The rhetoric on both sides has put the world on the edge. Already saddled with the Russia – Ukraine war with no signs of ebbing, the world can do without another debilitatingconflict. TheIsraeli counter offensivehas so far left over 42000 dead in Gaza, over2100dead in Lebanon and over 3.5 millions forciblydisplaced. The threat of uncontrolled escalation with unintended consequences is real, post the ballistic missile attack by Iran on 01 Oct.
While Israel had the right to respond to this barbaric and despicable attack on its territory including rape, brutal murderand taking of hostages, its war of resurrection( as termed by Netanyahu),  has seriously violated international humanitarian laws bytargeting hospitals, schools, UN designated refugee camps, UN aid personnel(including one Indian Colonel) and even fire fighters involved in rescue operations. In the bargain,it seems to have squandered theinitial sympathy / solidarity and moral high groundtransforming into one of international isolation, hateand condemnationstarting with demonstrations in academic institutions across the US, UK, Australia, Canada and EU capitals. It reached a crescendo with the International court of justice at the behest of South Africa calling out Israel to take provisional measures to prevent genocide, permit humanitarian aid and protect Palestinians, stopping short of ordering suspension of  operations. The ICJ ruling ofJuly 2024 termed Israel occupation of Gaza, West Bank and East Jerusalem as illegal. UN resolution of  18 Sep 2024 supported by 124 nations asking Israel to vacate Palestinian territories in 12 months and the recent call by French Presidentfor arms embargo only points to increasingdiscomfort against Israel strategy of utterly disproportionate use of force in the Middle East.Early in the conflict, The UN Chief Mr Antonio Guterres opined that the Hamas attack in Israel has not happened in a vacuum indicating  Israel’s persistent violation of UN resolution to vacate the occupied territories and its ruthless prosecution of innocent Palestinians.
Israel was carved out of Palestinian territory in 1948 as part of Britain’s promise during Balfour Declaration1917. Despite multiple UN resolutions, Israel continues occupation and expansion of its settlements in occupied territories and Palestinian people have been denied a home land for over 75 years, a systemic and perpetual injustice. However, a disorganised, disjointed and factional Palestinian authority is equally to blame to perpetuate a terror approach to realisation of statehood.
Hamas justified the Oct 7 attack as a response to continued Israeli occupation, blockade of Gaza Strip and settler violence against Palestinians. Events leading up to the attack includedthe Trump Administration’s shifting  the American Embassy in Tel Aviv to  Jerusalem in 2018,the Abraham Accord of 2020 under which UAE, Egypt,  Morocco and  Bahrain sought to normalise diplomatic relationship with Israel and reproachment between the regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran brokered by China in 2023.These geopolitical shifts sought to push the Palestinian aspirations to the backburner. 
The Israel military response  has been relentless, clinical and sequential. Starting with carpet bombing of Gaza, ground offensivesin Northern, Southern and Central Gaza preceded by large scaleevacuations and  intense land operations in Khan Younis, Rafah and Al Shifa hospital. Having reduced most of Gaza to rubble, focus shifted to the Northern border with Lebanon.  The operations against Hezbollahhas been more precise and intelligence driven. The pager , walkie talkie and solar devices attacks demonstrated Israeli capability in infiltrating into the core of opposing leadership and using vastly superior technological and intelligence back up to decimate most of the top leadership of Hezbollah including its chief Nasrallah with minimum collateral damage. Two decisive phases of operations brought Iran in direct confrontation with Israel. The first, targeting of Iranian Embassy in Damascus resulting in killing of a number of senior military leadership of IRGC which was responded by the first Iranian direct attack on Israel by rockets and drones in April 24 which was largely symbolic rather than substantive. The secondmore resolute attack was in Oct 24,consequent to  killing of Hezbollah chief Nasrallah and weeks after Hamas leader Ismail Haniyehwas killed in Teheran while in the city to attend the swearing in of the new president. Israel is not known to accept attacks on its territory without severe and disproportionate retribution. 
 Mr Netanyahu declared at the UN that Israel has been fighting a war on seven fronts. While one out of these is a State actor, the others are nonstate/semi state actors / Iran backed militias. At the beginning of the conflict, Israel had declared complete destruction of Hamas and securing of the hostages as part of its war aims. One year into the conflict, neither of these aims seem to have been achieved or are likely in the foreseeable future. Instead, the threat of a regional conflict looms large with the likely possibility of reversing the Arab-Israelreproachment. The military capability of both Hamas and Hezbollah have been severely degraded (as claimed by Netanyahu himself) including their leadership, infrastructure and hardware. Both after the first strike in April and second in Oct, Iran has called the strikes as conclusive and does not want to escalate if there were no Israeli response. It is fully aware of its military and economic weaknessvis a vis a vastly superior Israel, at least in the air as the two don’t share a border. The ball therefore lies squarelyin Israeli court to steer the future course of war.Ironically, Israel may be salivating with the idea of targeting Iran’s nuclear and oil installations, an opportunity it may never get in the futurewith greater prospects of Iran going nuclear after the conflict. The US, though has called for ceasefire multiple times, has continued to supply weapons and ammunition besides vetoing calls for a ceasefire at the UN. The Arab world has been largely non-committal in its response since it doesn’t want to get embroiled  in a regional conflict with devastating economic consequences.It seemed to move away from a Shia – Sunni quagmire into a more transactional relationship both within the region and with the West. While acting as a conduit for communication between Iran and its adversaries to manageescalation, it has not been able to de-escalate the situation. During the first calibrated strike by Iran, countries like Jordan intercepted drones targeted at Israel. However, there have been no such effort during the Oct 1 missile strike. The  situation seems to have changed rapidly now with more vigorous secret and hectic parleys between Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia as any escalationmight bring the US bases and oil refineries ( including likely closure ofStrait of Hormuz through which nearly 30 percent of world oil trade passes)in the larger Middle East region into the equation.
Much on the lines of Russia -  Ukraine war, India is in a unique position to act as a mediator to end the conflict.Its interests in the middle east has been severely compromised; weather it is in the domain of  energy security, renewed focus in Chahabar port, remittances from over nine million diaspora living in the region, I2U2 or the still born India-Middle Est-Europe economic corridor. Its wider engagement with the Islamic world (including UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar) which had warmed up of late may suffer a setback. It has maintained a strong military and economic relationship with Israel and a consistent policy on the Palestinian question. While abstaining from voting in the UN resolution calling for Israel to vacateoccupied territories in 12 months, the PM in his recent interaction with the President of Palestine Mr Mehmud Abbashas pledged his unwavering support for the people of Palestine including the two state solution. He called for an immediate ceasefire, return to dialogue and diplomacy and return of hostages.The situation calls for an immediate halt to the hostilities. Terrorism can never be used as an instrument to achieve political aims. Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi must be designated as terrorist organizations with attendant consequences. Palestine must be admitted as a separate statein the UN recognisingits territories as on 04 June 1967with East Jerusalem as its capital. Time bound withdrawal of Israel from occupied territories with ironclad security guarantees holds the key.The Arab world must recognise the State of Israel and establish diplomatic relations. All this is easier said than done but is there a different way? The Middle East conflagration needs a solution more urgently than ever before.

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Kenter Joya Riba

(Managing Editor)
      She is a graduate in Science with post graduation in Sociology from University of Pune. She has been in the media industry for nearly a decade. Before turning to print business, she has been associated with radio and television.
Email: kenterjoyaz@easternsentinel.in / editoreasternsentinel@gmail.com
Phone: 0360-2212313

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