With less than 5 months left to reach the government’s declared assurance of fully inoculating the entire adult population within December 31, 2021, from the long and short of the story that has emerged till now, the emerging perception is that it's going to be a herculean task. Various assessments have been made so far regarding the average daily dose size of the Covid vaccines that would enable the country in reaching the ambitious target and the commonality in them has been that it should ideally not fall below the daily 90 lakh doses mark. How the target is going to be accomplished is a big question now and scarcity that has loomed large since the initial days of the for-all vaccination rollout still persists.

Gradual drop in daily cases over the larger part of July brightened the prospect of the 2^nd Covid wave coming to an end. Even though the first two days of August have been in conformity with the expectation, there are currently at least 13 states/UTs which are witnessing a surge and the Union Health Ministry informed on Tuesday that there are 44 districts across India where the positivity rate is above 10%, i.e. more than double the 5% threshold danger limit standardised by the WHO. In the case of Arunachal Pradesh, besides the ICC there are a couple of districts where the positivity rate is hovering around 10% with daily swings. As per the data shared by the Ministry in terms of doses administered so far and coverage percentage attained, in July around 13.45 crore jabs were pushed which means an average of around 43.41 lakh doses per day and this is after an improvement by 12.5% from June’s figure which in total was 11.96 crore doses. A not too deep analysis of the vaccination data from January 16 to July 31 will reveal that around 47.02 crore doses have been administered during this period which is 50% of the targeted adult beneficiaries. However, the catch is that of the 47.02 crore doses, 39 % pertained to dose 1 and it’s only 11% of the population who have been fully vaccinated. During Question Hour in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday, the Union Health Minister has said that the Centre is making efforts to inoculate the entire country “at the earliest” and four more Indian pharmaceutical firms are expected to start Covid vaccine production by October-November that will expedite the inoculation drive. Even if this aspirational projection materialises, questions remain then how about the months of August and September, the backlogs of which when carried forward on a cumulative basis will be a big figure to be met for the end months.

Whether through imports or self-production, daily supply must not be less than 90 lakh doses.