Among the various pressing concerns regarding Covid-19 pandemic that have kept the health administrations both at the Centre and states on tenterhooks, if the first is vaccination, the next will be the possibility of a third wave. Not just a handful, many top-level health experts, virologists and doctors have already issued the warning- a third Covid wave is not at all a distant possibility. The puzzle that remains unsolved, however, is when exactly it will strike, what the variant will be and what are the first-hand measures to be rolled out on a pre-emptive basis which can at least minimize the impact of damage. Amid this sea of confusion, there is a unanimity however- if more than 70% of the vaccine-eligible population can be inoculated within the time period preceding the strike, there are chances that the quantum of misery will be much less than the earlier two waves.

The biggest challenge, as it appears now, is to inoculate with a speed that will cover the desired percentage of population before the onset of the third wave. There are also speculations over its ferocity since the behavior of Covid in India has befooled the experts. It’s generally observed that in any pandemic, the waves gradually become less in intensity due to multiple factors. In the battle with the pandemic in the country it has however been diametrically opposite. If the first wave had a daily highest caseload count of less than a lakh, in the 2^nd one, it crossed 4 lakh and it had actually been several weeks when cases remained between the 3-4 lakh zone. In terms of casualties, it has been the same trend- unprecedentedly destructive and unlike the 1^st wave. Experts have been stressing on the self-safety factor, a responsibility that is to be shouldered exclusively by citizens. Theoretically okay, but if lowering the mask just for a more comfortable breath in the hot summer results in an instant infection due to the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant, a citizen doesn’t deserve to be blamed. How urgent it is to ramp up vaccination from the economic point of view is evident from the latest Monthly Economic Review of the Union Finance Ministry. It says that nearly 70 crore citizens must be vaccinated by September if the Indian economy is to be thrown open completely. A simple calculation will show how slow India’s vaccination is currently- it’s a meager 33 lakh or so daily, while it must be 93+lakh daily if a 70+% of the population is to be taken out of the danger zone.

If the Central government fails to arrange the required stocks, a third wave can’t be prevented. A hard reality, the prevention of whose unfolding will be a huge challenge.