While a narrative is in the making nowadays that the Indian economy is on the verge of revival, the first advance estimates of the national income for the 2020-21 fiscal released by the NSO on Thursday will come as a strong contradiction. What is unique in this prediction is that both in terms of nominal and real GDP there will be contraction to the tune of 7.7 % and 4.2% respectively- a rare ‘distinction’ in a single financial year the Indian economy hasn’t seen during recent memory. Ahead of the annual budget, it’s a double whammy for the economy indeed and the Union Finance Ministry must think of some innovative ways of revival if it really intends to see ‘green shoots’ sprouting.

Entire 2020 has seen an unprecedented economic decline and galloping unemployment. The current NSO figures can be understood better if analysed in the light of what actually happened in the first three quarters of 20-21 FY. There were two back-to-back phases of recession and unemployment rose consistently with peak reaching in September and nothing dissimilar in November and December, as per figures released by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) and other trustworthy economic watchdogs. If compared with the same period in 2019 and 2018, unemployment figures have been really unsettling. A glance of the current sector-wise standings will perhaps mirror better the actualities than the myriad of figure-linked indicators which common people hardly understand. Out of a total eight sectors, except for agriculture and electricity generation which somehow managed to remain in the positive zone with estimated growth rates of 3.4 % and 2.7 % respectively, trade, hotels, transport, manufacturing and mining have been hammered, pushing them all into the zone of contraction. Strange enough, there are efforts now to establish the NSO estimate just as an arithmetic input exercise preceding the 2021-22 annual budget whose relevance is only for two months or so. It’s also incomprehensible what basis it is being floated by a few pundits of economics that a V-shaped recovery of the economy in 2021 is on the cards and all negative figures will be transformed overnight into positive ones as a result of a 11-12% GDP growth!

 

It will be highly elating if this really happens. Covid and global recession are all true, but they can’t be chosen all the time as the only causes of the current doldrums of the Indian economy. People urgently need money in their hands and all future economic packages ought to be really stimulating. What’s the future for the agriculture sector which has been a ray of hope even during Covid times if the prevailing uncertainty due to the farm laws persist? 

Time to think deeply and objectively. 

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Kenter Joya Riba

(Managing Editor)
      She is a graduate in Science with post graduation in Sociology from University of Pune. She has been in the media industry for nearly a decade. Before turning to print business, she has been associated with radio and television.
Email: kenterjoyaz@easternsentinel.in / editoreasternsentinel@gmail.com
Phone: 0360-2212313

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