Amid the prevailing differences of opinion among experts regarding the intensity of the approaching 3rd Covid wave in India, as per reports, there is every possibility that it may not just equal its predecessor, but even surpass it. Assigned with the task of drawing the country’s Covid emergency strategy, an empowered group of officers reportedly has sent the alert that during peak, a daily caseload of 4-5 lakh is a distinct possibility. The caveat is significant at a time when in all probability India is passing through a transition phase, i.e. the period marking a switch-over to Covid 3.0 and in most clear terms the government has been advised to start taking medical preparations needed for this surge. The call for high-level preparedness was much necessary given the harsh truth that its absence before the onset of the 2nd wave had cost the country dearly.

As per the details contained in the Covid 3.0 combat blueprint, the government has been urged to ensure that 2 lakh ICU beds that should necessarily include 1.2 lakh ventilated ICU beds, 5 lakh oxygen-enabled beds and 10 lakh Covid isolation care beds are available across the country within September next. It has been observed that in terms of availability of the above medical resources, the current capacity can attain 2.7 lakh new Covid patients per day only and on numerical basis this means around 80,000 ICU beds and 1 lakh more oxygen-enabled non-ICU beds are needed to be added within the next 2 months. Underscoring the apprehension that children might be hit during the 3rd wave, the group has proposed arrangements that would essentially include a reservation of 5% ICU beds and 4% non-ICU oxygen beds for pediatric care. If all these relate to infra-centric preparations, the actual need of which would be felt sometime in the beginning or middle of October, a major part of the suggestions relates to the ongoing fight with the still prevailing 2nd wave. It has been a specific suggestion that the current daily Covid caseloads mustn’t be allowed to cross the 50,000 mark during the period in the run-up to the 3rd wave and non-pharmacological interventions such as Covid Appropriate Behaviour and carefully planned area-specific lockdowns have been proposed. So far as the latter suggestion is concerned, since July 25, the per day 50,000 threshold has been maintained and this needs to be continued unfailingly. It remains a fact that the current pace of vaccination (around 50 lakh doses per day) and the many ‘milestones’ it has achieved is far from the actual demand if placed in the context of the beneficiary population size.

The coming two months will thus be crucial on two counts- building up Covid medical care infra and ramping up vaccination. Laxities in any of them may entail a cost even larger than the one incurred during 2^nd wave.