The biggest Covid news on Tuesday was that for the first time in nearly three months, daily caseload has dropped below the 50,000 mark. The other heartening facet from this ‘fall’ is it’s for the first time in two and a half months, the country has freed itself from the blame of being the highest global daily contributor. These ‘milestones’ are indeed pleasant and will help in building up a feeling that the worst might be over and the days ahead will be less gloomy, if not fully sunny. It will be a gift of God if that comes true. But, as the virus has deceived time and again during cutting across countries and continents, it’s time to be more cautious rather than complacent. Festivals are coming and if that turn out to be the cause of mass relinquishment of SOPs, a second wave at the onset of winter, the way it’s happening now in the US and many parts of Europe will be unavoidable.

Hope has risen not only because of successive drop in daily cases and daily recoveries that have outnumbered new additions for 17 consecutive days, but also because of the projections made by a Central government-appointed committee of scientists which has constructed the opinion that Covid peak might had already been scaled by India in mid-September and the time ahead might experience a decline. Based on a new mathematical model, it has been projected that by February next at least half of the country’s total population is very likely to be infected with the virus. The committee is keeping hope on this factor, which although apparently sounds fearful will help in slowing the spread of the disease, an inference that the epidemic might well be under control by February 2021. The noticeable aspect of this new model is that it has taken into account the factor of ‘unreported cases’ which has not received serious attention so far and based on it, it’s the estimation that around 30% of the population is already infected and not 14 % as suggested by government-initiated serological surveys. But despite all ‘hopes’, it’s the warning that is important and unsurprisingly it’s in the form of a further reiteration of the ‘basics’, the crux of which is that up to 2.6 million infections just in a single month will be awaiting if the fundamentals i.e. physical distancing and wearing masks are ignored.

How far this restraint will be exercised by the masses during the coming festive months is a matter of conjecture. A critical stage of the fight has been reached and wrong steps will be disastrous. This holds true for the entire country including Arunachal Pradesh. It’s time to be extra cautious.